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Types of uncertainty
Section:   eng » Risk analysis  
Types of uncertainty  To distinguish between three types of uncertainty:

 

1. Lack of information. Ignorance of everything that may affect the organization's activities.

 

2. Accident. In any event, the forecast can be deviations from some random external influences: it is a denial of the equipment, and the disruption in the logistics of the production process, and much more.

 

3. Uncertainty response. For the firm mostly unpredictable behavior of competitors and customers of products, as well as mezhkollektivnye disorder.

 

Risk analysis of investment projects is the probability of occurrence of adverse events, namely the probability of loss of investment capital (part of the capital) or incomplete receipt of anticipated income of the investment project.

 

The main causes of uncertainties in the parameters of the project:

1) incomplete or inaccurate project information;

2) error in predicting the parameters of the project;

3) errors in calculating the parameters of the project. Simplify the formation of models of complex technical or organizational, and economic systems;

4) production and technological risk (risk of accidents, equipment failures, etc.);

5) fluctuations in market conditions, prices, exchange rates, etc.;

6) incomplete and inaccurate information about the financial position and business reputation of the enterprises participating in (the possibility of defaults, bankruptcies, failures of treaty obligations);

7) force majeure (natural disasters, war, etc.);

8) political uncertainty, the risk of adverse socio-political changes in the country and the region;

9) the risks associated with the instability of economic legislation and the current economic situation. Changing the conditions for investment and use of profits.

 

These uncertainties are typical for all investment projects.

 

Uncertainty is associated not only with imprecise foreknowledge of the future, but also to the fact that the parameters relating to the present or past, incomplete, inaccurate or at the time of their inclusion in the project materials had not yet been measured.

 
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