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Fundamentals of Investment Analysis
Section:   eng » Fundamentals of Investment Analysis  
Fundamentals of Investment Analysis  Critical moments in the process of evaluating the investment project are:


- Forecasting sales volumes, taking into account the possible demand for the products (since most of the projects associated with the additional output);

- Evaluation of cash flow on an annual basis;

- Assessment of the availability of required financing;

- Evaluation of acceptable values ​​of the cost of capital.


Investment projects analyzed in the budgeting process of investment, have a certain logic.


First, with each investment project is usually associated cash flow, elements of which represent either a net outflow or net cash inflows. Under the net cash outflow in the analyzed period means the excess of current cash cost of the project on current cash flow (or the reverse ratio is a net inflow). Orientation on cash flows and, for example, the profit is more than justified. Profit - calculated index whose value can vary significantly depending on several factors, including subjective. In contrast, with cash flows reflect the real movement of values ​​and can be assessed the costs and financial results.

Nevertheless, the use of indicators in assessing the profits of investment projects is not denied completely. The analysis developed criteria using no cash flow, and the sequence of predicted values ​​of net annual profits generated by the project. Thus, any investment project can be presented as cash flow, which consists of two parts. The first of them - an investment that is net outflow, which is considered most at one time. The second - the subsequent return flow, ie distributed in time series of earnings (net inflows, although in some years of net outflows), which allow to recoup the initial investment.


Secondly, most analysis is conducted on an annual basis, although this limitation is not absolute or mandatory. Analysis can be conducted on equal base period of any duration (month, quarter, year, etc.) only need to remember to link the values ​​of cash flow, interest rate and length of this period.


Third, it is assumed that all investments made at the end of the year preceding the first year of the project generated cash flow, although in principle the investment can be made for several consecutive years. Similarly, it is assumed that the inflow (outflow) occurs at the end of next year (this logic is understandable and justified, because, for example, is calculated as income - accrual basis at year end). Thus, in the most general form of an investment project can be presented as cash flow, the first element - one-time investment (outflow), attached to the end of the year preceding the start of operation of the project, and subsequent items - cash receipts (inflows) generated project.


Fourth, the main criteria for evaluating investment projects involve records of the time factor. This is done by using known algorithms used in financial mathematics for the ordering of the elements of an extended time cash flow (Operations Building and the discount rate). In this case, the discount factor used to evaluate projects must conform to the length of the period, the framework on investment project (for example, annual interest rate is taken only if the length of the period - the year).


Thus, good conduct investment analysis to evaluate:


- The cost of the project;

- The level of its riskiness;

- Economic feasibility of the project based on the calculation of basic performance indicators (NPV, IRR, PI);

- Future cash flows of the periods of the life cycle

project and their current (reduced) cost;

- The possible duration of the project;

- The level of the project discount rate the project;

- Structure and amount of funding investment;

- The impact of inflation on the basic parameters of the project;

- The investment attractiveness of the company.

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